Estimating the Incidence and Economic Cost of Lyme Disease Cases in Canada in the 21st Century with Projected Climate Change

Author:

Ogden, NH, Dumas, A, Gachon, P, and Rafferty, E

Publication type:

Journal Article

Publication date:

2024-02

Journal/Series title:

Environ Health Persect.

Volume:

132

Issue:

URL:

https://ehp.niehs.nih.gov/doi/10.1289/EHP13759?url_ver=Z39.88-2003&rfr_id=ori%3A...

Abstract:

Projected annual LD cases for Canada ranged from 120,000 to > 500,000 by 2050. Variation in incidence was mostly due to the maximum incidence at endemicity selected, with minor contributions from variations among climate models and RCPs. Projected annual costs were substantial, ranging from CA$0.5 billion to $2.0 billion a year by 2050. There was little difference in projected incidence and economic cost between RCPs, and from 2050 to 2100, because projected climate up to 2050 is similar for RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 (mitigation of greenhouse gas emissions captured in RCP4.5 does not impact climate before the 2050s) and by 2050 the most densely populated areas of the study region are projected to be climatically suitable for ticks.