Climate change and habitat fragmentation drive the occurrence of Borrelia burgdorferi, the agent of Lyme disease, at the northeastern limit of its distribution.

Author:

Simon, JA, Marrotte, RR, Desrosiers, N, Fiset, J, Gaitan, J, Gonzalez, A, Koffi, JK, Lapointe, FJ, Leighton, PA, Lindsay, LR, Logan, T, Milord, F, Ogden, NH, Rogic, A, Roy-Dufresne, E, Suter, D, Tessier, N, and Millien, V

Publication type:

Journal Article

Publication date:

2014-08

Journal/Series title:

Evol Appl.

Volume:

Issue:

URL:

http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/25469157

Abstract:

We combined climatic and landscape variables to model the current and future (2050) potential distribution of the black-legged tick and the white-footed mouse at the northeastern range limit of Lyme disease and estimated a risk index for B. burgdorferi from these distributions. We predict a further northern expansion of B. burgdorferi of approximately 250-500 km by 2050 - a rate of 3.5-11 km per year - and identify areas of rapid rise in the risk of occurrence of B. burgdorferi. Our results will improve understanding of the spread of Lyme disease and inform management strategies at the most northern limit of its distribution.