Estimating the population health burden of Lyme disease in Ontario, Canada: a microsimulation modelling approach

TitleEstimating the population health burden of Lyme disease in Ontario, Canada: a microsimulation modelling approach
Publication TypeJournal Article
Year of Publication2021
AuthorsMac S, Evans GA, Patel SN, Pullenayegum EM, Sander B
JournalCMAJ Open
Volume9
Start PageE1005
Issue4
PaginationE1005-E1012
Date Published11/2021
Abstract

Our model estimated 333 (95% confidence interval [CI] 329-337) infections over the lifetime of 100 000 simulated people (mean age 37.6 yr, 51% female), with 92% (95% CI 91%-93%) of infections diagnosed. Of those 308 people with Lyme Disease diagnoses, 67 (95% CI 65-69) developed sequelae (e.g., arthritic, cardiac, neurologic sequelae), and 34 (95% CI 33-35) developed PTLDS. Lyme disease resulted in a loss of 84.5 QALYs (95% CI 82.9-86.2) over the lifetime of the simulated cohort. Sensitivity and scenario analysis showed that increasing incidence rates of Lyme disease, potential underreporting, duration of PTLDS and quality of life (health state utility) associated with PTLDS had the greatest impact on health burden.

URLhttps://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8598239/